Arrive at the (Greener) Autonomous Last Mile.
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The motivation for this study was to quantify the environmental and social benefits of autonomous vehicle delivery which includes packages delivery such as aerial drones, ground delivery vehicles, and self-driving trucks and vans to an Arrive smart receptacle. The quantified benefits are then compared to the same parameters but for conventional package delivery. Keramida Inc. (KERAMIDA) evaluated the benefits of autonomous vehicle delivery to an Arrive receptacle, specifically the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, air pollution emissions and safety.
All calculations conducted for both autonomous vehicle delivery and conventional package delivery were based on the market projection conducted by Technical Consultants International, specifically, “the global autonomous last-mile delivery market is expected to be valued at $11.90 billion in 2021, and is projected to reach $84.72 billion by 2030, registering a CAGR of 24.4%.”[1] This estimate of autonomous delivery market value was used in our simulation. Research-based assumptions, based on peer-reviewed literature and market research, were made with regards to autonomous vehicle delivery technology as well as conventional package delivery. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the impacts from all other autonomous delivery are similar to drone delivery. Package types considered in this study included ecommerce packages, food delivery, and medical prescription delivery. It is assumed 1% of the households worldwide in 2030 are equipped with Arrive smart receptacles. Emission calculations were conducted using widely accepted U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) emission factors and the safety analysis relied on published safety and traffic data primarily from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT).
Key findings of our report indicate significant environmental and social benefits of autonomous vehicle delivery to an Arrive receptacle, including:
• The total annual GHG reduction in 2030 is approximately 1.7 billion kg, which is about the same amount of GHG that 841,717 acres of forest can absorb in a year. From another perspective, autonomous vehicle delivery will reduce 682.01 kg GHG emissions for each household that uses Arrive smart receptacle (89.12% reduction rate).
• Will reduce 0.46 kg volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emission for each household (99.70% reduction rate)
• Will reduce 1.00 kg nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission for each household (94.67% reduction rate)
• Will reduce 0.08 kg particulate matter (PM) emission for each household (87.68% reduction rate)
• 192,287,726,032 fewer miles driven due to the implementation of autonomous vehicle delivery
• 16,769,379 fewer vehicles driving due to the implementation of autonomous vehicle delivery
• 454,915 fewer car crashes due to the implementation of autonomous vehicle delivery
*https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/autonomous-last-mile-delivery-market
